Modeling of surface sediment concentration in the Doce River basin using satellite remote sensing.

Surface sediment concentration (SSC) is linked to several problems related to water quality and its monitoring is costly because of the required fieldwork and laboratory analyses. Thus, sediment measurements are often sporadic, punctual, and performed during a short period. Orbital remote sensing allows the monitoring of SSC along the river channel permitting continuous and spatial information. This work had two objectives: (1) to model the surface concentration of sediments in the main channel of the Doce river using data from Multispectral Instrument (MSI)/Sentinel 2 and Operational Land Imager (OLI)/Landsat 8 satellite sensors; and (2) to compare different linear modeling approaches to select the best variables for SSC monitoring. For comparison with actual field data, we used mean SSC measurements in 14 sediment gauge stations from 2013 to 2020. Reflectance data of the MSI/Sentinel 2 and OLI/Landsat 8 satellites bands and spectral indices related to the monitoring of water resources were used as explanatory variables. Simple and multiple linear regression models (SLR and MLR), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), and Elastic Net regression were used to predict the SSC. The near-infrared band images from both MSI/Sentinel 2 and OLI/Landsat 8 satellites showed a strong linear relationship with the SSC. Multiple linear regression, LASSO and Elastic Net regressions showed good performance for SSC prediction. Sediment flow maps show an SSC reduction in the Doce river channel in recent years, indicating that part of the material from the Fundão tailings dam rupture may have been transported through sediment resuspension and transport processes.

Water Footprint of soybean, cotton, and corn crops in the western region of Bahia State / Pegada Hídrica das culturas de soja, algodão e milho na região oeste do Estado da Bahia

ABSTRACT Water catchment to subsidize agricultural activities is estimated at 70% of world consumption. In the western region of Bahia, the main agricultural center of the state, there is intensive use of water for the production of agricultural commodities. In regions with high water demand, quantification of the use of this resource can be performed using anthropic pressure indicators, such as the Water Footprint. Thus, this work determined the Water Footprint of the soybean, cotton, and corn crops produced in the western region of Bahia State. In order to determine the Water Footprint, data of the environmental characteristics and crop production in the region were used, were obtained from different Brazilian public and private institutions. The calculation of Water Footprint of the crops was performed by the sum of the green, blue, and gray components. The average Water Footprint between 2012 and 2017 for soybean corresponded to 1,972.3 m3 t-1, with cotton at 1,825.2 m3 t-1, and corn 512.4 m3 t-1. The analyses of the results and the comparison with the values of the Water Footprint of other regions demonstrate that the edaphoclimatic conditions of the western region of Bahia are propitious to the development of these crops.

RESUMO A captação de água doce para subsidiar as atividades agrícolas é estimada em 70% do consumo mundial. Na região oeste da Bahia, maior polo agrícola do estado, verifica-se o uso intensivo de água para a produção de commodities agrícolas. Em regiões com elevada demanda de água, a quantificação do uso desse recurso pode ser realizada utilizando indicadores da pressão antrópica, como a Pegada Hídrica. Deste modo, este trabalho determinou as Pegadas Hídricas das culturas de soja, algodão e milho produzidas na região oeste do Estado da Bahia. A fim de se determinar a Pegada Hídrica foram utilizados dados das características ambientais e de produção das culturas na região, os quais foram obtidos de diferentes instituições públicas e privadas do país. O cálculo das Pegadas Hídricas das culturas foi realizado pela soma das componentes verde, azul e cinza. A Pegada Hídrica média entre 2012 e 2017 para a soja correspondeu a 1.972,3 m3 t-1, sendo a do algodão de 1.825,2 m3 t-1 e a do milho de 512,4 m3 t-1. Na análise dos resultados obtidos e na comparação com os valores de Pegada Hídrica de outras regiões, demonstrou-se que as condições edafoclimáticas da região oeste da Bahia são propícias ao desenvolvimento dessas culturas.

Machine learning models for streamflow regionalization in a tropical watershed.

This study aims to assess different machine learning approaches for streamflow regionalization in a tropical watershed, analyzing their advantages and limitations, and to point the benefits of using them for water resources management. The algorithms applied were: Random Forest, Earth and linear model. The response variables were the three types of minimum streamflow (Q7.10, Q95 and Q90), besides the long-term average streamflow (Qmld). The database involved 76 environmental covariates related to morphometry, topography, climate, land use and cover, and surface conditions. The elimination of covariates was performed using two processes: Pearson's correlation analysis and importance analysis by Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE). To validate the models, the following statistical metrics were used: Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE), percent bias (PBIAS), Willmott's index of agreement (d), coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and relative error (RE). The linear model was unsatisfactory for all response variables. The results show that nonlinear models performed well, and their covariate of greatest predictive importance was flow equivalent to the precipitated volume, considering the subtraction of an abstraction factor of 750 mm (Peq750). Generally, the Random Forest and Earth models showed similar performances and great ability to predict the minimum streamflow and long-term average streamflow assessed, constituting powerful and promising alternatives for the streamflow regionalization in support to the management and integrated planning of water resources at the level of river basins.

Pluviometric and fluviometric trends in association with future projections in areas of conflict for water use.

Rapid population growth coupled with climate change has been putting pressure on natural resources worldwide, especially on water resources. The Paracatu basin located in Brazil is a basin which has been showing a reduction in its water availability for many years due to the growing demand for irrigation in the region. Therefore, the objective of the present work was to analyze the trends in the flow and precipitation data for the Paracatu basin and correlate them with land use between the years 1980 and 2019, and thus make a projection of flows through the year 2030 based on these results. The projections of future flows in the fluviometric stations analyzed were obtained using the WEAP model, considering the projected increase in the irrigated area for the region and the future climate data from the IPCC for the RCP 4.5 scenario. The results of the analyzes indicated a tendency towards a reduction in flows in all the analyzed fluviometric stations, both in the monthly and annual series, whereas the total annual precipitation did not show a trend in the analyzed period. Future flows showed a downward trend, as well as flows observed in the period from 1980 to 2019, reinforcing that activities such as irrigated agriculture without planning can negatively affect the sustainability of water resources, intensifying conflicts and tensions which already exist in the basin. This type of analysis proved to have great potential to contribute to the solution of water resource management challenges in several hydrographic basins around the world which are in a situation of scarcity and conflict.

Hydrological modelling in small ungauged catchments.

The knowledge of the frequency and magnitude of low flow events is necessary to mitigate social, economic and ecological impacts inside the basin. However, the measurement network in Brazil is still restricted to large drainage areas, while basins with less than 300 km2 remain ungauged. Among different flow estimation methods, we used a rainfall-runoff model designed specifically to estimate flow rates during the dry season in small ungauged basins: the Silveira Method (SM). We tested the model performance for the São Bartolomeu river basin (Minas Gerais, Brazil), a small ungauged basin that experienced severe droughts and water supply shortages in 2014-2016. We tested eleven different scenarios based on the time and duration of drought periods used to estimate the model parameters. In the best scenario, the model underestimated low flow rates by 31% for Q95 and was considered suitable to predict local low flow. Finally, the model results suggest that a water volume higher than the river can support has been granted concession during the dry season, which may lead to an unsustainable water supply scenario soon. This result showed the capacity of SM as a complementary tool for the evaluation of water potential in small basins.

Sistema para análise das outorgas de captação de água e diluição de efluentes na bacia do rio Piracicaba (MG) / System for analysis of water abstraction and effluent dilution in Piracicaba river basin, Minas Gerais State, Brazil

RESUMO A outorga de direito de uso da água é um dos principais instrumentos de gestão para controle quantitativo e qualitativo dos recursos hídricos. Para sua implantação, é necessário, entre outras ações, definir critérios e desenvolver ferramentas para análise integrada dos aspectos quantitativos e qualitativos da água. Dessa forma, o objetivo do estudo foi desenvolver um sistema para análise das outorgas de captação de água e diluição de efluentes aplicado à bacia hidrográfica do rio Piracicaba (MG). Inicialmente, foram realizados o levantamento e a preparação da base de dados geográfica, hidrológica e administrativa. O sistema foi desenvolvido utilizando tecnologias open source, sendo estruturado em três camadas: de dados, de negócios e de apresentação. De acordo com os resultados, constatou-se que os trechos mais críticos quanto à vazão passível de outorga localizam-se na foz e na cabeceira do rio Piracicaba. A análise dos dados permitiu concluir que o sistema determina, de forma consistente, a disponibilidade hídrica outorgável ao longo da hidrografia e as vazões de diluição e indisponível pelos lançamentos, além de identificar trechos dos cursos d'água com disponibilidade hídrica crítica, fornecendo subsídios para análises das outorgas quali-quantitativas dos recursos hídricos na bacia.

ABSTRACT The granting of water use rights is one of the main management instruments for the quantitative and qualitative control of water resources. For its implementation, it is necessary, among other actions, to develop tools for integrated analysis of the quantitative and qualitative aspects of water. Thus, the objective of the study was to create a system for the analysis of water abstraction and effluent dilution in the Piracicaba river basin in Minas Gerais. Initially, the survey and preparation of the geographic, hydrological and administrative database were carried out. The system was developed using open-source technologies, with a three-layer structure: data, business, and presentation. According to the results, it was verified that the most critical sections regarding the grantable flow available are located at the mouth and spring of the Piracicaba river. The analysis of the data allowed us to conclude that the system consistently determines the availability of water throughout the hydrography, the dilution flow and discharge unavailability, and identifies stretches of the watercourses with critical water availability, providing support for analyses of the quali-quantitative granting of water resources in the basin.

Desenvolvimento e validação de equação para determinação do coeficiente de dispersão longitudinal em rios de médio porte / Development and validation of an equation to estimate longitudinal dispersion coefficient in medium-sized rivers

No presente trabalho, desenvolveu-se equação para predição do coeficiente de dispersão longitudinal (D L) em rios de médio porte, com vazões entre 16,20 e 98 m³ s-1, a partir de ensaios experimentais utilizando traçadores fluorescentes. A equação foi deduzida utilizando-se análise dimensional e ajustada aos dados de campo pela técnica de regressão linear múltipla. Em seguida, realizou-se a validação da equação testando-a em outra base de dados, diferente daquela para a qual foi desenvolvida, com vazões entre 19,57 a 48,54 m³s-1. Adicionalmente, foram comparados os desempenhos de outras quatro equações empíricas de predição do D L, utilizando-se três métodos comparativos. A equação desenvolvida apresentou ajuste estatístico adequado e bom resultado, com melhor desempenho geral quando comparada a outras equações propostas na literatura.

In this paper, an equation has been developed to estimate the longitudinal dispersion coefficient (D L) in medium-sized rivers, with flow between 16.20 and 98 m³s-1, from experimental tests using fluorescent tracers. The equation was deduced by dimensional analysis and adjusted to the field data by the multiple linear regression technique. Thereafter, the validation of the equation was performed by testing it in another database, which is different from the one it had been developed for, with flow between 19.57 and 48.54 m³s-1. Additionally, the performance of four other empirical equations was compared for D L prediction using three comparative methods. The developed equation showed appropriate statistical adjustment and good result, with better overall performance when compared with other equations proposed in literature.